Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 3.672252 4.388150 5.186876 6.141196 7.247363 8.486051 9.974892
2025-08-10 2.485131 3.352092 4.422901 5.831234 7.621768 9.808126 12.663929
2025-08-17 1.799906 2.692155 3.892559 5.600923 7.940290 10.997925 15.256284
2025-08-24 1.414260 2.312962 3.613537 5.590802 8.468644 12.442505 18.266477
2025-08-31 1.146631 2.032629 3.401001 5.605402 8.987300 13.880728 21.366577
2025-09-07 0.930590 1.779746 3.173180 5.540570 9.349838 15.096933 24.228532
2025-09-14 0.729675 1.505293 2.856548 5.274258 9.346778 15.739837 26.266608
2025-09-21 0.610535 1.348967 2.706355 5.248897 9.706627 16.948855 29.244160
2025-09-28 0.514408 1.214524 2.569324 5.219415 10.043025 18.133068 32.259405
2025-10-05 0.477845 1.192229 2.634486 5.557221 11.040604 20.474837 37.321315
2025-10-12 0.428085 1.130831 2.612619 5.725316 11.745861 22.371840 41.773276
2025-10-19 0.392448 1.093382 2.631979 5.972185 12.614246 24.610057 46.954214
2025-10-26 0.337654 1.000494 2.524144 5.957975 13.002674 26.057442 50.920088
2025-11-02 0.276219 0.876095 2.326362 5.729856 12.949942 26.701308 53.512935
2025-11-09 0.226995 0.770588 2.151962 5.524641 12.914966 27.365888 56.180331
2025-11-16 0.196929 0.710398 2.074102 5.521131 13.289995 28.829861 60.417267
2025-11-23 0.172191 0.659227 2.009302 5.537531 13.705656 30.399245 64.952394
2025-11-30 0.147611 0.601474 1.916768 5.473976 13.937809 31.617044 68.885751
2025-12-07 0.119498 0.523055 1.753135 5.210670 13.692498 31.842542 70.882885
2025-12-14 0.103694 0.482501 1.687492 5.185630 13.987491 33.201534 75.220183
2025-12-21 0.089976 0.445156 1.623929 5.156476 14.268027 34.547157 79.610889
2025-12-28 0.087359 0.450687 1.691611 5.490700 15.453354 37.914121 88.358048
2026-01-04 0.080657 0.437470 1.698359 5.657022 16.241711 40.466500 95.548302